Everyone Is Waiting for Rates to Drop... But What If They Don't?

Everyone is waiting for mortgage rates to fall. This week's data says the next Fed move could go the other direction, and that changes how you should be thinking about locking, negotiating, and buying right now.

In this week's update:

00:00 The next Fed move might be up Three policymakers voted to raise rates at the July FOMC meeting. The minutes point to inflation and labor data driving the September 16 decision.

Rates this week The 30 year fixed averaged 6.65%, down from 6.67% and lower for a second straight week. The 15 year averaged 5.95%.

Jackson Hole and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh The symposium runs August 27 to 29, with Warsh delivering his first keynote as Chair on Friday, August 28, nineteen days before the September FOMC decision.

Housing starts collapse Total starts fell 12.4% in July to a 1.24 million annual pace. Single family starts fell 9.9% to 808,000, down 15.7% from a year ago. Multifamily fell 16.8%.

Builder confidence and buyer leverage The NAHB Housing Market Index sat at 35 in August, below 40 for roughly a year and a half. 35% of builders cut prices in August at an average of 6%, and 63% used sales incentives.

Resale market slows Pending home sales fell 2.3% from June to July, a second straight monthly decline, and were down 2.2% from a year ago with declines in all four regions.

Labor market Initial unemployment claims fell to 206,000. Continuing claims remained elevated at 1.799 million, a sign job seekers are taking longer to land.

Oil and inflation risk Crude moved higher on escalating US and Iran tensions, with gas prices above $4.00 a gallon. Energy is the wild card for inflation heading into September.

Rate lock strategy A quarter point on a $400,000 loan is roughly $65 a month and about $24,000 over the life of the loan. If you are under contract, that is not worth gambling on a speech.

Mortgage rates just hit 6.65%, but are they heading back up?

We analyze the latest Fed activity and market volatility to explain why pending sales are stalling and what this means for your home buying timeline. Get the clear facts on current housing market trends so you can make informed decisions.