Why You Shouldn't Wait For A Housing Crash

The headline said home prices are falling. The data says the opposite, and the difference comes down to one thing most reports skipped over.

In this week's update I break down the July new home price story, what new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole, and where buyers have real leverage right now.

What's covered:

Why the 2.3% median new home price drop is a mix shift, not a value decline. Builders sold more homes in the $300,000 to $399,999 range in July, which pulls the median down without changing what your home is worth.

What Case-Shiller actually showed. Home prices rose 0.4% from May to June and 2.7% over the past four months. A $500,000 home appreciating 3% per year gains roughly $15,000 in value in the first year alone.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. He made clear that getting inflation back to the 2% target remains the top priority, acknowledged some progress, but said the underlying trend has not shown enough sustained improvement.

The inflation data behind it. Headline PCE rose 0.2% in July with annual inflation holding at 3.7%. Core PCE also rose 0.2% with annual core holding at 3.3%. The Dallas Fed trimmed mean, which filters out unusually large price moves, came in at 2.3% over the past year, much closer to the Fed's target.

Q2 GDP grew at an annualized 1.5%, matching the initial estimate.

Buyer strategy. New home sales fell 10.5% in July. Builders carrying standing inventory are motivated, and that shows up as rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and upgrade packages. Stack all three.

Rate lock strategy. Every quarter point on a $400,000 loan is roughly $65 a month. Lock when the payment works for your budget, not when the headlines feel comfortable.

Are home prices dropping? Don't let misleading headlines panic you about your home value.

Recent data shows a shift in sales volume, not a crash in the real estate market. I explain exactly why the median price metrics are skewed and what that means for your investment.

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