How to get a better deal in this market

Key Points from This Video

• Consumer prices (CPI): Up 0.6% in September, 3.7% annually. Hotter than expected, which pushes against lower rates.
• Core inflation: 2.6% over the past year, above forecasts. Price pressure is sticking even without food and energy.
• Wholesale inflation (PPI): Hotter than expected. Producer costs often flow through to consumer prices later.
• The Fed: Raised rates 25 basis points last month. Minutes show most members expect another hike by year-end, with meetings left in October and December.
• Bonds: Concerns around AI companies pushed investors into safer assets, offsetting the pressure from hot inflation. That support may not last.
• Existing home sales: Up 1.5% in September, ending a three-month decline, but down 2.2% from a year ago.
• Inventory: Up 1.9% from August and 4.6% year over year. More homes and fewer buyers means more negotiating room.
• Retail sales: Up 0.8%, more than double expectations, but driven by gas prices. Excluding gasoline, just 0.2%, suggesting consumers may be weaker than the headline looks.
• Payment math: On a $400,000 loan, a quarter point rate increase costs about $66 a month, close to $800 a year.