How to time your rate lock when the market is this choppy
November 6, 2026 1:33Dan Ardis, NMLS# 1412272
New mortgage and market updates every week from @bakersfieldlender
Jobs blew past expectations this week while stocks sold off and money ran into bonds. That leaves mortgage rates in a tug of war, which means choppy days ahead. If you're under contract, pick your lock number ahead of time so you can act fast when a good day shows up.
Veterans Day is Wednesday, November 11. To every veteran and military family, thank you. If you want to know how to use your VA home loan benefit the right way, including whether you can use it again, call or text me at 661-342-9381.
Jobs blew past expectations, creating a volatile environment for your mortgage rates.
With 165,000 jobs added and layoff claims at a 57-year low, the economy is shifting quickly. If you are under contract, you need a solid rate lock plan to protect your payment against market swings.
Key Points from This Video
- October payrolls: +165,000 vs. about 60,000 expected. A big beat that usually pushes rates up.
- August and September revisions: +84,000 combined. The economy was stronger than first reported.
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, down from 4.2%. Good news for job security and loan approvals.
- ADP private payrolls: +86,000. A second straight month of solid private hiring.
- Job openings (JOLTS): 7.52 million vs. 7.1 million expected. Possibly overstated by remote jobs posted in multiple places.
- Initial jobless claims: 189,000, tied for a 57 year low. Layoffs are still limited.
- Continuing claims: down from earlier highs, partly because some benefits are expiring.
- Markets: Stocks sold off on tech worries and investors moved into bonds, which can help ease mortgage rates.
- Payment math: on a $400,000 loan, a quarter point is about $65 a month, or close to $800 a year.
Dan Ardis is a Bakersfield-based mortgage broker with 20+ years in the industry, including experience as a Senior Specialty Underwriter. He originates residential and commercial loans for Kern County clients and in 49 states through Barrett Financial Group.
Related Resources
Questions After Watching?
Dan answers mortgage questions for Bakersfield buyers and investors. Call (661) 342-9381 or get pre-approved online.