Lowest Unemployment Claims Since 1969? (There’s a Catch!)

Weekly unemployment claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest level since 1969, but new identity and eligibility verification requirements may be delaying or canceling some filings. That means the labor picture may not be as strong as the headline suggests, and that has direct implications for where mortgage rates go next.

Also this week, new home sales rose 1.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000, coming in above expectations after two straight months of declines. Home prices continued climbing, with ICE's Home Price Index showing a 0.26% gain from June to July and 1.7% year over year appreciation, running near a 3% annualized pace since the start of the year. On a 500,000 dollar home, that works out to roughly 15,000 dollars in equity over twelve months.

On the geopolitical side, reports that the Iran backed Houthi group proposed a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia pushed oil prices higher and added market volatility. Higher energy costs feed inflation, and inflation is the biggest thing standing between us and lower mortgage rates.

I originate residential and commercial loans nationwide, including purchase, refinance, investment property, and commercial financing.

Noise is when smart people make moves.

Are unemployment claims actually at a 1969 low, or is the data misleading? We break down the real story behind the latest labor market numbers.

While the headline numbers look incredibly strong, new verification requirements are likely skewing the data. This update explains why these figures might not reflect the actual health of the economy so you can make sense of the current market trends.